So what if Obama seemed a little chastened after his Ohio and Texas losses? He lost! He missed the mark. He spent a lot of other people's money to finish her off and he didn't. Being a little fazed is understandable. I think Obama will do another day or two of penance for losing these contests. The pundits will hem and haw over what went wrong. Hillary will gloat. But then there will be another news story (i.e. Obama wins Wyoming and Mississippi) that will change the conversation. In truth, I don't think Obama did that badly. He closed a 20 point gap in Texas and 10 points of a 20 point gap in Ohio. He's winning the Texas caucus. He has won more delegates in Texas than she did. The two factors that I think contributed to his less than stellar performance in Ohio were (1) Hillary ran out the clock and held the line and (2) he got slammed with two pseudo-scandals at the most inopportune time, the day before the primary. Perhaps that says something about his campaign's lack of foresight, but I think it had a lot to do with bad luck. If he had had more time to explain (see factor 1), factor 2 would not have had such an impact. It did not push them onto the shoals as much as it tripped them up at the finish line, just as he was going to overtake her.
Obama usually is organizationally stronger than she is, as he's proven to have been in just about every one of the other 35 states that have voted so far, and which says a lot for a guy who has never done this before against a candidate with "35 years of experience" running national campaigns. (Goes to show what experience teaches you.) Hillary put all of her eggs in Ohio because she apparently wasn't very electable in the 25 plus contests Obama has won. She decided to make Ohio and Texas her firewall, devoted tons of money and resources, in Ohio had the support of the very popular governor (who knows the state very well), went balls to the wall and took some really cheap shots. All of these factors, plus her husband's and the governor's popularity, made Ohio ideal for her. Sure, it paid off, she has bragging rights, but her argument for continuing now is completely out of context. It was an uphill battle for Obama to fight. If he fell short due to a trip up, it's unfortunate but not the end of the world and not an indication of what lies ahead, I don't think. The dynamic in Pennsylvania, unfortunately, is the same: similar demographics, she has the support of the popular governor and Philadelphia's mayor, her husband is popular there, etc. Hopefully, Obama won't fall into the same traps he did in Ohio.
The bottom line is this, no matter how you do the math, there is almost no chance that Hillary will win the nomination. She would have to win by 20 points or more in every single state from here on out, including repeats of Michigan and Florida. Even if Michigan's and Florida's delegates were seated as is (where she wins all of Michigan's delegates because Obama wasn't on the ballot), she would still be behind Obama by about 50 delegates. Neither candidate at that point would have enough to reach the 2025 required to win the nomination, so the super delegates would have to decide who wins. If they thwart the will of the delegates or the popular vote, they really run the risk of tearing the party apart (if it's not already torn apart, once Hillary and Obama have finished the primary race). So, Obama would have to either have a major stumble, withdraw from the race in the interest of the party (and run again in 2012 against President McCain) or be killed in order for Hillary to win the nomination.
Against this backdrop, Hillary's campaign came out of Tuesday with arms swinging. Her campaign today compared Obama to Ken Starr (undertone: poor Hillary suffered through the vast right wing conspiracy of the 90s and now this!). They're claiming that only she can win the big states while Obama only wins states that don't matter. Their saying that, because of a few thousand people in Ohio, Democrats have shown that they want the race to continue. They promise to pillage and burn their way to the nomination.
Here's why she's wrong. First, the math makes it virtually impossible for her to win the nomination, though I'll concede there are those long shot circumstances I referred to, which she is apparently banking on. Second, there is no reason to believe that absent a Hillary Clinton on the ballot that Obama could not win the reliably Democratic states or the votes of people who live paycheck to paycheck. Third, Obama has shown that he can win more than just the reliably Democratic states, which is sort of the goal! Fourth, Obama may very well be the nominee of the Democratic Party, of which she is a part. She is on very thin ice if she chooses to tear him apart and provide more ammunition for McCain to use against him in the general. And if she does anything that seems to be unfair or underhanded that ultimately wins her the nomination, she can kiss the African American vote good bye. Therefore, she too will not be president. Imagine her epitaph: HRC, the person who robbed the nation of the opportunity to have the first woman or the first African American president of the United States and, instead, gave us another white guy. RIP
What does Obama do now? First, he needs to solidify his support in Mississippi and Wyoming and win, which would change the news coverage. The new message, "Was Ohio just an anomaly for Clinton?" Then he moves on to a Pennsylvania. Second, he needs to answer some of the questions she is raising. Some are legitimate. He needs to tell or demonstrate that he is ready to be commander in chief. He has done things, not just talked about them. He does understand the issues, he doesn't just offer lofty poetry. People need to see that they can get a fighter, a wonk, an inspirational speaker, and an historic figure, all in one package. Third, he needs to dump his baggage. He needs to dump his skeletons now, 7 weeks before the next primary. The press may be bad at first, but he'll have more control over it, it won't come out in dribs and drabs, it won't be released the night before the voting begins, and once hay has been made of it, the story will shift to something else. Fourth, he needs to better anticipate the shots that are going to be fired at him and neutralize them before they even get fired. If they get fired, he needs to dodge them or absorb them quickly and let the story move on. Fifth, he needs to start acting like the front-runner and leader. So far, she is getting away with staying in this race by winning only 2 out of the past 15 contests. She is being allowed to stay despite the fact that she has virtually no chance of winning. She is defining states like Ohio and Pennsylvania as the only states that count among 50 states. Unchecked, in her victory speech she is including Michigan among the states that she won despite the fact that the delegates there don't count and she was the only one on the ballot. She is the loser in all of this, yet she is getting away with defining the terms of the debate, defining the rules of the game and defining Barack Obama. If, after winning 30 states and being ahead in every measurable way, he does not take control, then maybe he deserves to lose. Finally, he needs to start delivering harder punches to Hillary. I think he has been playing all along as the guy who really does want Hillary to leave this race with her dignity and integrity intact, even while Hillary doesn't seem to give a damn about her own dignity or integrity. This is a difficult position for him to be in because if he seems like he's bullying, he's labeled a sexist pig. If he acts too chivalrous, he's seen as a sexist pig. If he doesn't fight back at all, he's seen as weak. Meanwhile, she's going on TV looking like a mad woman, screaming at Obama, calling him names, spreading innuendo and lies, and people think it makes her look like a fighter. But does it make her look presidential? This whole argument about how difficult it is to run as a woman is crap. Try running against one! Maybe he needs to deliver hard punches while prefacing everything with, "with all due respect, madam." It may take a little of the shine off of him, but he really has to end her and move on to the general.
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