Here is a great website for poll watchers. It's pretty self explanatory: dark and light red are likely to go for McCain; dark and light blue are likely to go to Obama; yellow ones are too close to call. What is interesting, though, is that even if McCain wins all of the yellow states, Obama still wins. Can it be true that Obama just has to play defense through November? Yes. But, the light blue states he needs to hold onto are New Mexico, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio. Unfortunately, if he loses Michigan or Ohio, he would have to win another yellow state. That means Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota are in play. If he wins FL, he's golden. But right now, McCain is ahead in the polls there. Obama is polling slightly ahead in Colorado, Virginia and Montana right now, so those are probably the state where he should focus his resources. Really, though, winning Montana's 3 electoral votes cannot make up for a loss in Michigan and/or Ohio, so really Colorado and Virginia would be the states to watch.